Syria is a disaster. With over 200,000 deaths and millions more displaced, the situation has gone from bad to worse.
Even more disastrous has been America’s policy in Syria. A cornerstone of American strategy against ISIS (as well as Assad) has been the backing of moderate Syrian rebels. Unfortunately, this plan has failed. In July, Defense Secretary Ash Carter stated that the United States had only trained 60 rebel fighters. By September these figures had gotten even worse: General Lloyd Austin, commander of Centcom, recently testified that there are only four or five US-trained rebels currently fighting in Syria. Not surprisingly, the American goal to train 5,000 rebel fighters will almost certainly not be met.
Creating a rebel force from scratch hasn’t worked, especially since the United States is entering the game very late. Going forward, it seems that the only choice for Syria is between Assad and ISIS. This is exactly what Assad wants: if the only remaining players in the conflict are Assad and ISIS then the United States will have no choice but to support Assad. Indeed, Assad’s strategy has been to let ISIS overwhelm the rest of the Syrian opposition. A study by Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center found that only a small number of Assad’s air strikes were directed at ISIS targets.
However, there is still a third way. While the moderate faction of the Syrian opposition is not what it once was, it is not completely gone. In southern Syria, ISIS has failed to take hold thanks to a largely unknown rebel faction called the Southern Front. Unlike ISIS and other opposition groups, the Southern Front is a coalition of secularist and moderately religious groups. In December 2014, they issued a statement pledging “the protection of all Syrian citizens, their property and their rights without any distinction of religion, culture, ethnicity, or political affiliation in accordance with International Humanitarian Law and the international standards of Human Rights.” They have also given reassurances to Christians living in their territory, particularly in the large town of Izra.
The Southern Front currently consists of 35,000 fighters, hardly an insignificant force. This reduces the need to build a force from scratch, something that the United States has so far failed to do. The troops are already there; they just need the training and equipment that the United States can provide.
The Southern Front has already had its fair share of battlefield successes. As mentioned before, ISIS has failed to gain much headway in the south thanks to the Southern Front. In June, the Southern Front managed to capture the largest Syrian Army base in Daraa province.
The most important aspect of the Southern Front is not its fighting prowess but rather its political and administrative abilities. The Southern Front controls 70 percent of Daraa province, a region of symbolic importance as the cradle of the Syrian opposition. The Southern Front has so far been able to competently administer this territory. SF forces have cooperated with local councils in distributing humanitarian aid. Where possible, its fighters protect key local infrastructure like electricity grids and water purification plants.
The Southern Front has even gone beyond the military role and established a political wing. This political faction has set ethical guidelines for its members and reached out to tribal sheikhs and local councils. So far, no other mainstream opposition group has demonstrated this level of civil administration.
The Southern Front is the only faction in Syria with the ability to not only defeat Assad and ISIS but also create a stable post-war environment. They have been able to capture and administer so with little to no help from the outside so imagine what they could do with full American support. The United States should provide the Southern Front with weapons and training as well as air support. In civil wars, people rarely choose sides based on ideology alone, instead preferring the side that stands the best chance of winning. If the Southern Front has the greatest chance for success, more fighters will flock to its ranks, creating a positive feedback loop. Financial support is often critical since so far Jihadist organizations have been the best funded, allowing them to attract recruits by simply paying more than anyone else. More importantly, the Southern Front must be given support to improve its capacities for governance, including development aid. It is critical that Syria does not slip back into chaos after the end of the war and the Southern Front provides the best hope to avoid that scenario.
Perhaps the Southern Front will become corrupted. Perhaps they will prove unable to defeat ISIS or Assad. But the United States has to at least try before ceding Syria to Assad.
In a situation that seems to have no good options, the Southern Front is the last hope.