The Arab-Israeli conflict is one of the world’s longest running conflicts. Ever since the State of Israel was created, it has had tense relations with its Arab neighbors, to say the least. Indeed, war broke out between Israel and the Arab World a mere day after the Jewish State was declared independent. This was the start of a decades-long series of conflicts that included the Six-Day War and the Yom Kippur War.
In spite of this bitterness the conflict between Israel and the Arab states has been winding down. The start of this cool down was the 1973 Yom Kippur War, where the Israelis were able to inflict a decisive defeat against the Arabic armies in spite of the Arabs having the element of surprise and advanced Soviet weaponry. Although the war started with Arab armies throwing the Israeli defenders into disarray, it ended with Israeli troops marching on Damascus and Cairo. This helped convince many Arab leaders that Israel could not be defeated through military force. It also convinced the Israelis that they were not invincible, since the Arabs proved to be stronger than the Israelis gave them credit for following the Six-Day War. Not long after the end of the Yom Kippur War, Israel and Egypt signed a historic peace treaty and Egypt became the first Arab country to recognize the State of Israel.
Mere treaties are rarely enough to prevent conflicts. However, a new factor has ensured that war between Israel and its neighbors is unlikely. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States became the main arms supplier in the Middle East. During the Cold War the United States supplied Israel while the Soviet Union supported the Arab states. When the Soviet Union collapsed the United States became the sole arms dealer in town and ended up supplying both sides of the conflict. Many nations like Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia now rely on American military aid to supply their militaries. If one of those countries were to attack Israel then the United States would simply stop sending them F-16s and Abrams tanks, making war very unlikely.
Recent events now promise to give the Arab-Israeli conflict a coup-de-grace. There is one factor in human history that has reliably caused people to put their differences aside: the presence of a common enemy. Indeed, the old proverb “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” is Arabic in origin. A common enemy has been presented in the form of Iran.
Iran has recently grown in power and influence, a trend that has alarmed Israelis and Arabs alike. Saddam Hussein previously balanced out Iran but after the United States invaded Iraq and established a pro-Iranian regime, Iran has been unobstructed by its old enemy. The Arab states view Iran with just as much suspicion as Israel does since Iran is a Shiite nation while most Arab states are Sunni. Iran has also become increasingly expansionist, supporting proxies throughout the region such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen, the Assad regime in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The greatest threat from Iran is its nuclear program. An enemy with nuclear weapons is the most dangerous kind of enemy, and such a prospect terrifies the Arabs and Israelis alike. While the nuclear deal with Iran will probably prevent Iran from gaining nuclear weapons, it is perceived as a win for Iran by many Middle Eastern nations, including Saudi Arabia and Israel. An unintended benefit from the nuclear deal might be an improvement in Arab-Israeli relations, even if such cooperation remains covert.
This is not to say that peace can be declared in the Middle East. For one thing, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will continue for some time, at least until a sustainable two-state solution occurs and maybe not even then. Nonetheless, perhaps the Arab states and Israel will find common ground, at least for the time being.