Ever since I was a mere freshman in high school, I have heard about a wild card in the Middle East that no one quite knew what to do with: nuclear Iran. Some of my teachers talked about it as if it would be the next greatest nuclear threat since the Cuban Missile Crisis. Others dismissed it as if it were a non-issue, explaining that sanctions would squeeze the Iran economy dry. I personally didn’t think much about the issue; I must have been distracted by something—getting a learner’s permit and Macklemore maybe, I’m not sure.
Regardless of what my teachers thought or said in those years, this issue appears to be resolving itself, at least partially. On April 2 in Lausanne Switzerland, Iran and the P5+1 (Russia, China, U.S.A., Britain, France, and Germany) finalized the details on their negotiations. Whether you agree with Obama that the sanctions imposed on Iran were toothless, or you feel that legitimizing Iran’s nuclear program is a terrible idea, this deal is going to change things in the international community. Here are the facts of the matter.
This issue began in 2006 when the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on Iran for violating the terms of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The terms of the NPT demanded that Iran suspend all uranium enrichment related activities, which they ignored and continued to develop in the following years. This development yielded results, and as of 2015, Iran has a great deal of nuclear infrastructure and resources. This includes 19,000 centrifuges, 10,000 kilograms of low-enriched uranium, and several nuclear facilities and power plants. The deal signed on April 2 will significantly reduce the nuclear capability of Iran and the harshness of the sanctions significantly.
Iran has stated time and time again since 2006 that their nuclear program has been for the purpose of energy only. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has agreed to trim the fat of the Iranian nuclear program in order to reduce its capability to produce nuclear weapons. The spinning centrifuges producing low enriched uranium will be reduced from 19,000 to 6,000, with only 5,000 authorized to spin at any given time. Iran will also reduce its stockpiles of low-enriched uranium by 98 percent, from 10,000kg to 300kg. Most of the excess will likely be sold to Russia, and in 15 years, Iran can begin to increase its stockpile once again.
In addition to the physical nuclear materials being reduced, Iran’s nuclear facilities will be changed to ease international worries. The heavy water reactor in Arak has a core that can produce substantial amounts of weapons grade plutonium. Iran does not wish to disassemble this heavy water reactor as it represents a significant investment in Iran’s infrastructure. Instead this plant will be redesigned, its core will be replaced and destroyed, and no more heavy water plants will be built in Iran for 15 years.
Additionally the underground uranium enrichment facility in Fordow will be stripped of all enrichment capabilities and turned into a physics research center. This facility was discovered in 2009 and defied the NPT and UN sanctions. It is also impenetrable to conventional airstrikes. Iran’s willingness to relinquish its most clandestine and defensible nuclear facility speaks volumes of their commitment to the deal.
This cutback in nuclear material and facilities should reduce Iran’s capability to create nuclear weapons drastically. Currently it is estimated that it would take Iran a couple of months to produce enough material to create a nuclear weapon.
With the changes proposed in the bill, the capability of Iran to create a weapon would be slowed to take at least a year. All of this, of course, depends on Iran’s compliance with the terms of the agreement.
“Iran has cheated and been more noncooperative with its nonproliferation obligations than I think any other country,” said David Albright, former U.N. Weapons Inspector and President of the nonprofit Institute for Science and International Security.
The writers of this bill have made provisions with this history in mind. Under the conditions of the framework of this deal, the IAEA will be able to inspect any facility in Iran they believe is “suspicious.” However, it is unclear how thorough these inspections could be. The details are still being worked out as to how quickly Iran has to admit the inspectors, as well as how much access they will have once inside the facility
The leadership in Iran appears to strongly believes in this deal and supports international collaboration.
“We can cooperate with the world,” said President Hassan Rouhani. “We do not lie, provided the other parties will implement their own promises.” Rouhani is under pressure from the businesses in his country to reduce sanctions, as they are hurting many sectors of the economy.
Since 2011, oil exports out of Iran have dropped by 1.4 million barrels. The private sector has also suffered; many businesses have shut down as international markets closed to Iran. The unemployment rate in Iran is estimated to be between 13 percent, and, at its peak in 2012, it was close to 20 percent. Iran needs a reduction in sanctions and has stated that it is a non-negotiable term of regulating their nuclear program.
When looked at holistically, both Iran and the international community want this deal. Rouhani needs to free up the economy of his country, and the U.N. would love to have a deal with Iran that actually works. While it is exciting that there is a chance this years-old issue can be resolved, the deal is far from over.
Once details are hammered out, enforcing the regulations will be an even more difficult task, and it wouldn’t be the first time Iran has dodged regulations. Yes, things are looking hopeful for a compromise that both parties will be happy with, but this hope should be tempered with a hefty dose of caution.