Everybody watches the Super Bowl because, after all, it does determine the world champions. And everybody has 20/20 hindsight when it comes to important, game-changing plays. So everybody knows what a catastrophic error Pete Carroll and his Seahawks coaching staff made by electing to throw the ball from the one-yard line in the fourth quarter, leading to a game-ending interception from Malcolm Butler.
All evidence in the situation points to the obvious correct decision: to run the ball. Run the ball across a seemingly trivial one-yard gap, using the best running tool in the NFL shed, Marshawn Lynch. However, taking a closer look will show that maybe the running option on this play wouldn’t have been the best choice after all.
Firstly, it was second down and there were still 26 seconds remaining on the clock. Would running on second down to try and get the touchdown as soon as possible be the best idea? Many might say yes, that the Seahawks should have taken advantage of the fact that Marshawn lynch had just completed a four-yard carry, and was revving high enough to fly across the plane for a one-yard gain. However, momentum isn’t always the most important factor in football strategy, contrary to what today’s popular commentators will tell you. The Seahawks’ coaching staff needed to take into account the bigger picture: winning the game. And while that may sound like a simplistic view on the situation, it does in fact complicate things.
If the Seahawks were to try and run the ball on that second down, and succeed as many believed they could, they would be ahead 30-28. Then they could either have scored the extra point or the two-point conversion. If they succeeded in getting the two-point conversion, they would force the Patriots to try and score a touchdown to win the game, where as with an extra point, they would allow the Patriots to tie the game with a field goal in the remaining time. Either way, scoring the touchdown on second down would leave the Patriots more time to attempt either comeback option. In throwing the ball, Pete Carroll was attempting to use up as much time as he could before eventually running the ball via Marshawn Lynch. He did, then, realize that Lynch was the best candidate to score the touchdown, he was just waiting for exactly the right moment to use the Pro-Bowler.
Take it from Carroll himself: “We were going to run the ball in to win the game, but not on that play,”
“I didn’t want to waste a run play on their goal-line guys. It was a clear thought, but it didn’t work out right.”
Next time you feel like your favorite coach or player made the wrong decision when the right one was so obvious, think about all the factors that played into that decision.