This past Sunday, U.S. President Barack Obama reached a “breakthrough” accord with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his second visit to New Delhi. Relations between the two countries have been tense in recent years due to disagreement over nuclear energy development in India and the arrest of an Indian diplomat in New York in 2013. Now, however, both governments are claiming to have forged a deep bond of friendship during the course of Obama’s three-day visit.
The nations reached agreements on three highly pertinent topics, the first of which is climate change. India agreed to phase out the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and expand its renewable energy capacity, but refused to impose cuts on its carbon emissions or coal use. This meager climate agreement came as a disappointment after Obama’s highly successful climate deal with China in November, but Indian commitment to renewable energy is a small victory.
Although India has set a goal of producing 100,000 MW of solar power domestically by 2022, most of its new power will come in the form of nuclear energy. In 2008, the Indian government agreed to allow U.S. companies to build nuclear power plants in India, but the construction stalled due to a law that would hold the companies liable in the event of a complication. This weekend, India agreed to form an insurance pool that would cover the liability, while the U.S. dropped a requirement that all nuclear material produced at the plant be tracked, making the plants more financially viable for all parties involved.
India and the U.S. also renewed a ten-year Defense Framework Agreement and agreed to pursue, in the words of Mr. Modi, “co-development and co-production of specific advanced defense projects.” These “projects” will likely involve advanced weaponry provided by the US to India.
In addition to the agreements established, Obama urged India to cut back on fossil fuel use, even while acknowledging how those very energy resources fueled America’s own development, and encouraged the nation to fight human rights abuses.
He cautioned that “with power comes responsibility,” as he announced his support for India to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.
Why does Obama want India as a permanent member of the Security Council? The answer lies to India’s east. Obama and Modi spent a great deal of time this weekend discussing their shared concern over China’s growing power. Although Obama has denied any intention to “contain” China, the nation’s expansionist policies have been a cause for concern as it seeks to extend its influence into other South Asian territories.
Historically, India has resisted efforts to partner with the United States, preferring to remain as an independent nation. Modi, however, has been more than willing to cooperate, even suggesting that India take a more prominent role in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in an effort to counter China’s influence.
A Chinese newspaper this weekend warned of the “trap” America is setting for India, claiming that “the West…with ulterior motives, regards the ‘Chinese dragon’ and the ‘Indian elephant’ as natural rivals” (Global Times 2015). The paper is not wrong. Sino-Indian relations have been under even greater strain than usual due to the presence of Chinese nuclear submarines in the Bay of Bengal and a recent confrontation between Chinese and Indian troops in the Ladakh region. This tension, combined with India’s rapid growth into an economic superpower, makes it the perfect ally for the United States when it comes to keeping China — and the rest of South Asia — in check.
Every political relationship is built on the notion of mutual benefit, and Modi knows how to play his politics. He is determined to expand his country’s influence, especially given that the Indian economy is set to overtake China’s rate of growth in the next year or two. At the moment, China presents the greatest rival to India’s political and economic power, and the US’s eagerness for an ally provides the perfect opportunity for India to gain some traction in the region.
Modi cleverly maneuvered around Obama’s attempts at a climate deal, resisting emission caps like those established in China. Although Modi acknowledged the danger that a rising ocean and melting Himalayas pose to his country, his focus throughout the negotiations remained on securing investment in the development of new energy resources. The climate deal he formed could only benefit the Indian economy, fueling new industry and new jobs, without any risk of economic downturn from cutting out established energy infrastructure or slowing energy production.
Even his agreement to allow the production of nuclear power is colored by the fact that the onus remains on the American companies to sell their power at a competitive price in a country where the use of coal is cheap and won’t be discouraged. Modi utilized Obama’s desire for a climate deal to further his own development aims, securing up to $1 billion in financing, just as Obama utilized Modi’s desire for economic development to further his own political strategies.
It remains to be seen if the means to these two ends can remain mutually beneficial. For the time being, it appears that both nations will be able to get what they want out of one another. We can only hope that the show of confidence between the two leaders is strong enough to keep their goals in line, and that Obama’s successor can earn the same level of trust. If not, it might be China’s turn to offer India the development aid it needs, resulting in an Orwellian shift of alliance and an end to America’s influence in the East.